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Disney, McDonald's...Napster: What's a Brand Worth, Anyway?
Take away the free music from the site and what's left -- software, a famous name and a cool logo. That could still be worth millions. by Warren Cohen Friday, July 14 04:33 P.M. |
Such a nightmare -- of having your bread-and-butter (beer-and-pretzel?) business yanked out from under you -- is an all-too-real fear for Napster, which could soon see its file-sharing music service disappear if the record industry has its way. Napster faces two legal judgment days. The first comes on July 26 when a federal judge rules on the Recording Industry Association of America's request for a preliminary injunction to shut down the service. If Napster survives this first test, it could still be closed for copyright abuse when the full case is heard later this year.
What's the value of a company without its main product? Currently,
Napster values itself at $62.6 million. That figure is based on
the 31.3 million shares of privately held stock with a per-share value of
$2.00. But in court filings, CEO Hank Barry said that if Napster were
compared to Internet companies with similar numbers of users, the market
value would be somewhere between $1.5 billion and $2 billion. Of course, if Napster prevails, such a valuation could be quite accurate.
These figures are based upon Napster's status as the most compelling Internet
story of the past six months. The company, which has 39 employees, boasts immense traffic,
estimated now at about 20 million users. Napster also has other obvious assets,
first and foremost its hugely popular and easy-to-use software.
But without file swapping, Napster's value may be closer to a version of Tetris than $2 billion. If forced to find a new business, a reimagined Napster would have to surmount its current flaws: no revenues, no long-term track record and a growing number of competitors eager to
steal its customer base.
To better gauge Napster's actual worth, Inside talked to a host of
branding and marketing experts. The following guide attempts to
determine the value of the company's pieces if it were forced to find some
other service to offer or product to sell in order to survive.
On the Net, most companies are willing to spend big for traffic. That's
because of the fierce battle to establish a destination site within a
sea of competitors. The premium portals, Yahoo and America Online, are able to charge commanding rates for banner ads. Yahoo has a market
capitalization of $67 billion, and AOL, with 23 million subscribers, has
a market cap of $135 billion. ''If you look at metrics like users, page
views and time spent on the site, that's the ultimate way to value a
company,'' says Milton Olin, Napster's chief operating officer. ''We are a
company with traction.''
There's one good example of a company valued solely for its turnstiles.
Last year, Blue Mountain Arts, the free greeting card site run by
ex-hippies, had virtually no revenues, just like Napster. But it did have a
million visitors a day. The site sold to Excite for roughly $780
million. Napster's users have great value, no matter what the
new service may be. ''They have a huge installed base which could be ported to new products and services if the file-sharing component is killed,'' says David Hyman, president of the CDDB, a compact disc database company.
On the downside, marketers in a digital world prize knowledge about the
quality of their visitors, not just the quantity. Whereas Amazon
greets visitors to its site by name and uses a customer's past purchases
to suggest new books, entering Napster has all the customer intimacy of
buying a street-corner hot dog. Users log on anonymously with fake
handles and begin trading with each other, not Napster. The company doesn't track the most frequently traded songs or even which artists' songs appear on the site. And unlike many e-commerce companies that send their users friendly e-mail offers, the only time users hear from Napster is when they're being tossed off the service.
Of course, Napster has never collected such data because its
architecture is designed to connect users to one another and avoid a
central authority. This is rooted in legal concerns that forced the company to take a hands-off policy toward its customers:
Napster initially hoped to position itself as an Internet service
provider to comply with the 1998 Digital Millennium Copyright Act and avoid
legal liability if it was used for piracy. By positioning itself as a neutral, passive
exchange, it hoped any questions of liability would revert to the user. If Napster didn't collect any data or information on its users, it
wouldn't have to monitor and boot them off its system.
So while Napster does possess the e-mail addresses of its 20 million users,
their worth may not amount to much. ''Anyone can sell a mailing list,'' says Jann Sabin, president of CreativeDepartmentUSA, a branding
specialist. ''If it had great relationships to sell of people who had been
doing business with the company for years, that would be different.''
And on the Net, traffic can disappear as fast as it is built. A case in
point, the sorry tale of PointCast, which in 1996 had a then-impressive 8 million downloads and 1.5 million active users.
Hyped on various magazine covers, PointCast promised to revolutionize
the Internet with ''push'' technology. News Corp. offered $450 million for
the site, but the founders declined. But as corporate networks sped up,
making surfing easier, people didn't need media pushed to their desktop
anymore and the bulky program disappeared. Last year, the remains of the
company were sold for $7 million, and it was quietly shut down earlier this year.
World-class companies spend most of their time trying to get their company logos and advertising messages to reinforce their brand to customers. Such an intangible asset can represent very serious money. Businessmen estimate the financial worth of brands in mergers and acquisition talks, and markets trade stocks based on brand strength. The New York-based firm Interbrand has the most-tracked annual study of valuable brands. For companies like BMW, McDonald's and Walt Disney, brand value represents more than 60 percent of their market capitalization, ranging from $11 billion (BMW) to $32 billion (Disney). That means that the company name and its reputation would sell for more on the open market than the value of these companies' factories, equipment, technology, theme parks and special sauce recipes combined.
Some marketing gurus say that Napster has not yet become a brand.
''Napster is only a product or service, a flavor of the month,'' says Interbrand's Grace. ''A brand secures future earnings through loyalty, but Napster hasn't been around long enough to secure sustainable consumer relationships.'' Adds CreativeDepartment's Sabin, ''It's not yet something people pay a little extra for, or drive a little further for -- it's just a channel.'' Olin agrees that branding has been the least of the company's concerns so far. ''We've spent no time yet with what one should do with a brand,'' he says. ''But Napster has grown on its own initiative with simple connections between music fans and each other. We didn't need to hire a company to tell us what color our logo should be.''
Marketers say that in some way, not having a strong identity could
benefit the company if it needed to reposition. Napster could still sell
or transfer music designated to be shared, or offer a file-sharing service in, say,
medical or legal documents. The RIAA helpfully suggests that Napster ''could use its system for authorized filing sharing (including the 'Human Genome Project') if it were enjoined from infringing copyrights.'' Even more broadly, Napster could be a site for new software, or an antiestablishment gathering area.
''They really need to figure out why this phenomenon has taken off,'' says
Mike Bainbridge, a general manager at the Sterling Group, an
international brand consultancy. (Inside.com is also a client of
Sterling.) ''Why them and not anybody else? What archetype have they have
tapped into? If they can figure that out, they can create new
opportunities for Napster.''
The good news is that many brands have rejiggered their identity to hold
on to customers. One example is Harley-Davidson, once a roadster for
street toughs and now an expensive two-wheel sports car for daydreaming Boomers. ''There is no connection with the old Harley image anymore,'' says William Keep, associate professor of marketing at Quinnipiac
University. ''It shows brands can adapt and change and move with the
market.''
To this end, Napster's vague brand name (deriving from 19-year-old founder Shawn Fanning's nickname after a sloppy hairdo) may also allow it to easily
transition to another type of business. ''If you were the Radio
Corporation of America, it would be hard to define a new business,'' says
James Bell, a senior partner at corporate image consultant Lippincott &
Margulies. ''But Napster doesn't really mean anything. It can be taken in
any direction to define a new business.''
While Napster's outlaw status has cultural currency today, it would likely become less
important in the future. ''If they were to lose the legal argument, they may be seen as a failure, something that didn't work out,'' warns Ron
Dayan, CEO of Complete-e Strategies, an Internet consulting firm. Adds
Martin Williams, president and CEO of U.S. Marketer.com, a marketing
resource Web site, ''Drexel Burnham was a brand name not worth much to
anyone else,'' referring to Michael Milken's law-flouting junk
bond firm.
Inside asked users at Afternic, a site that has users buy and
appraise domain names, to evaluate www.napster.com's potential worth. As of
Thursday, 54 people weighed in, coming up with a median value of $500,000.
Ari Karp, a Boston-based Web developer, appraises domain names as a side
business. He values the domain name itself at $2 million. ''It's almost
a household name,'' he says. ''It's catchy, short and easy to remember.''
Other companies are racing to emulate Napster's basic peer-to-peer
computing software, proving that writing such a program isn't like
devising a new database manager. But even if Napster's basic
architecture was desirable, brand strength can still draw more than
fancy technology. Boo.com, the debilitatingly cool $125 million fashion site that
went bankrupt earlier this year, spent millions developing a proprietary
system in which an e-commerce company could set up a single online
ordering network across different languages and currencies. Yet Boo's
software sold for only $378,000 at liquidation. Benjamin Narasin, chief
executive of Fashionmall.com, says his company paid significantly more
for the rights to Boo.com's brand name.
And in the end, as with all corporate assets, Napster's value remains less tied to its own billion-dollar claim of megahugeness and more to how the marketplace views the company. As Sabin notes, ''I can say that my house is worth a million-and-a-half dollars. And if some fool is crazy enough to pay for it, it is.''
NAPSTER'S CUSTOMER BASE
Napster's estimated 20 million fanatics may be its crown asset. According to
calculations by Phil Leigh, a financial analyst with the Raymond James &
Associates investment brokerage firm, if Napster's rapid growth from January to May continued at
the same pace through the rest of the year, the company would have as
many unique users as Yahoo.
NAPSTER'S BRAND
Closely linked to Napster's impressive customer base is the elusive, fuzzy feeling that
marketers like to call ''brand.'' A brand has to do with the emotional relationships forged between a company and its customers. It's a company's big-picture raison
d'etre, the ephemeral qualities it claims to sell. FedEx, for instance, doesn't
just deliver packages but peace of mind. The Discovery Channel is not
just another cable option but a pathway to mystery and adventure.
''Leading technologies can flame out, but successful brands are about
personalities and trust,'' says Leeann Lavin, senior vice president at
Wilson McHenry Company, a strategic communications firm.
NAPSTER'S URL
Related to both the Napster brand and the potential customer traffic is
the actual URL of Napster.com. Like prime beachfront real estate, an
easy-to-remember, easy-to-find URL address is considered vital to a
company's fortunes. The record price fetched in a domain-name sale is $7.5 million for business.com.
NAPSTER'S TECHNOLOGY
The genius in Napster's software is in its concept, not its code.
Linking users to one another was a brilliant way to solve the problem of
how to locate content on the Web, but it wasn't a ''eureka!'' technical
achievement. After all, company founder Fanning wrote the basic
Napster program with the aid of some books he got at the local
bookshop.
NAPSTER'S PERSONNEL
Napster has 39 people across a wide spectrum of functions: operations,
engineers, marketing and business development. While it's more than likely that many of the former Napster team would leave after a sale, marketers say that the new owners may need to retain
one key person: Shawn Fanning. ''Fanning embodies a lot of what Napster
is,'' says Alicia Stack, a senior vice president at Addison Whitney, a
branding consultancy. ''The company's identity is tied up in him.''